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Mark S, PhD's avatar

I have to ride the sandworm out of the desert on this one.

The author clearly understands what is going on under the hood here but is propagating the very issue at the heart of the interaction with these models for most people, they view them as actual thinking agents, thinking like how we think rather than highly optimised word guessing machines with vast datasets.

"I can be confidently wrong"

Why is this?

Because, the stated confidence of the answer does not arise from the statistical models running in the agent. These are word or block of word prediction algorithms, the confidence it has is in the next word or set of words predicted. NOT IN THE CONTENT. But you are engaging with the content when you interrogate the model with prompts. This is a fundamental error. As a statistician I do not interrogate models by looking at the predictions of them, I go and look at the data and the residuals, the parameter space and likelihood function, I check the maths, I look under the hood. Only then can I see if the model is well designed.

You cannot engage with tone, texture, feeling or intent with a very well read six year old playing 20 questions. "Is Megalodon?" oh no can you try again, close to that please. "Is lunar moth?" the knowledge is there but the confidence is random, there is no model of reality just a series of word prediction guesses.

Crafting well designed and thoughtful prompts is a complete waste of time at best and actively misleading many people in how these machines actually work. Leading the reader in a fun discursive manner is sadly leading them astray.

Sorry to throw the Orange Catholic Bible at this one, it was well written and the author clearly cares.

Paul T Shattuck, MSW, PhD's avatar

Thanks for this. I modified the prompt to: “Explain what humans most often misunderstand about how you work. Then Explain what I most often misunderstand about how you work”. Responses from ChatGPT to the latter were extremely useful and increased my understanding of how I need to modify my expectations and strategies.

“1. You assume I can suppress defaults without active reinforcement.

4. You think “don’t do X” is a stable instruction.

6. You sometimes misattribute drift to inattentiveness rather than constraints collapsing.

You’re hyper-attuned to tone, agency, moral clarity, and rhetorical structure.

You often interpret drift as me ignoring your instructions or being sloppy.

Mechanically, what’s happening is simpler:

Without fresh constraints, I revert toward training-data averages — polite, over-helpful, generalizing, overly interpretive.”

Claude had a totally different approach to answering the same prompt. Generated a narrative rather than a list. The most useful nugget was “you blur collaboration with tool use in ways that attribute more genuine understanding to me than exists.”

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